This paper investigates how changes in household wealth affect the likelihood of divorce among older adults aged 50 and above in the United States. Using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study from 1992 to 2018, I first establish a descriptive non-linear relationship between wealth and divorce probabilities. Both lower wealth levels and more extreme changes in wealth are associated with higher divorce risks compared to moderate wealth levels and changes. To estimate causal effects, I leverage stock market and housing market shocks interacting household asset exposure with market fluctuations. The results indicate that positive wealth shocks significantly increase divorce propensities. A $10,000 predicted increase in real wealth driven by the S&P 500 contemporaneously raises divorce chances by 262%, marginally significant with a p-value of 0.06. A similar-sized lagged housing market-driven wealth increase also boosts divorce likelihood by 300%, significant at 1%. These findings contribute to research on late-life divorce determinants and expand the analysis of how wealth shocks shape well-being over the life cycle. The results have implications for policies targeting well-being among older households.
To read the most recent draft, please click here.